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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.
A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.
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“We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood,” Buffett observed.
In his 2022 letter to shareholders, he criticized mobile trading apps that make day trading and speculative positioning effortless, accusing them of turning the stock market into a “gambling parlor.”
Two years later, Buffett again targeted the “gamblification” of financial markets in his annual shareholder letter.
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They must also evaluate their current technical safeguards to ensure alignment with regulator expectations and certification standards.
Safeguarding has reappeared as a focal point for the regulator. In July of this year, ANJ imposed a €500,000 ($572,797) fine on an unnamed online betting operator, referred to as Company X, for not adequately identifying and supporting customers exhibiting signs of problematic gambling.
The fine followed an investigation that found Company X had failed to correctly identify 29 high-risk players at an appropriate risk level. Six players were missed entirely and 23 were misclassified at a lower risk tier.
