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Land-based gambling can attract international investment. Cirsa expanded its Marrakech presence last November. Private online betting has no equivalent licensing route.
Cirsa’s own IPO prospectus is blunt about it: “Online gaming only exists for betting, which is operated by a state agency,” it says of Morocco, adding that online casino games “are not allowed”.
The same divide exists in Tunisia and Egypt. Governments there have focused on prohibition and enforcement rather than opening online markets to private operators.
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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
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The GMI, know locally as EEE, is described as a “residual payment to guarantee and legal minimum income for all residents”.
Anyone residing in Cyprus, with income not high enough to support their basic needs, is eligible for the benefit.
Cyprus is not the first market to consider whether to block its welfare recipients from using their benefits to gamble, Brazil introduced a similar ban in 2025.